Skip to Content, Navigation, or Footer.
03/04/2025
Boise State guard Alvaro Cardenas drives and draws a foul on Utah State guard Deyton Albury in the first half at ExtraMile Arena on Wednesday night. (Darin Oswald/Tribune Content Agency)
Boise State guard Alvaro Cardenas drives and draws a foul on Utah State guard Deyton Albury in the first half at ExtraMile Arena on Wednesday night. (Darin Oswald/Tribune Content Agency)

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Bracketology: Colin McMahon’s bracket projection (March 4)

A weak bubble has led to a dramatic closing stretch of the season

It’s March, folks.

That means that Selection Sunday is as close as ever, just 12 days away to be exact, but it also means that my bracket projections should look closer and closer to how the official bracket will look when it is announced a week from this Sunday.

This week saw a ton of important results, affecting both the top seedlines and the bubble, with the teams near the cut line really struggling as of late.

20250227_032659930_iOS.jpg
Anthony Leal (right) and Trey Galloway celebrate during Indiana's win over Penn State on Feb. 26, 2025. (HN photo/Kallan Graybill)

Indiana, North Carolina and Xavier all picked up wins, but almost every other team on the bubble has taken a loss recently. West Virginia lost to BYU, Arkansas lost to South Carolina, Nebraska lost to Minnesota, Oklahoma lost to Ole Miss, SMU lost to Stanford, Texas lost to Georgia and Wake Forest lost to Duke, all within the span of Saturday to Monday.

This creates a situation where most of the bubble teams stayed where they are because almost everyone lost, but Indiana and Xavier were the biggest bubble winners of the week and are in the field, while UNC and Boise State also benefited from this week and find themselves extremely close to being in the field.

While the bubble is considered weak — and it wouldn’t be wrong to feel that way — its excitement on a daily basis has provided a great story to follow as the season winds down.

As for the top of the bracket, the one seeds stayed the same, while Iowa State is back on the two line after beating Arizona. Clemson is up to a three after Kentucky, Michigan and Texas A&M were defeated, while Purdue is back on the four line after beating UCLA.

Both St. John’s and Auburn wrapped up their respective outright conference titles and should be considered the winners of the weekend, though both have their sights on the ultimate prize that’ll be given out in April.

But, for now, here’s my latest edition of my NCAA Tournament bracket projection.

The Bracket
image1.png
Graphic by Colin McMahon
First Four (Dayton, OH)
East Region: 12 Ohio State vs. 12 Arkansas
Midwest Region: 12 Nebraska vs. 12 Xavier
South Region: 16 American vs. 16 Quinnipiac
Midwest Region: 16 Southern vs. 16 Southeast Missouri State
Bubble Watch
Last four byes: Baylor, West Virginia, Georgia, Indiana
Last four in: Nebraska, Ohio State, Arkansas, Xavier
First four out: Oklahoma, Boise State, North Carolina, Texas
Next four out: Wake Forest, Cincinnati, UC Irvine, SMU
Multi-Bid Conferences
SEC: 12
Big Ten: 11
Big 12: 8
Big East: 5
ACC: 3
Mountain West: 3
West Coast: 2

More
Powered by SNworks Solutions by The State News
All Content © 2025 Hoosier Network