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03/11/2025
Auburn's Chad Baker-Mazara (10) puts up a shot under pressure from Kentucky's Koby Brea (4) at Rupp Arena on Saturday, March 1, 2025, in Lexington, Kentucky. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images/TNS)
Auburn's Chad Baker-Mazara (10) puts up a shot under pressure from Kentucky's Koby Brea (4) at Rupp Arena on Saturday, March 1, 2025, in Lexington, Kentucky. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images/TNS)

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Bracketology: Colin McMahon’s bracket projection (March 11)

Be on the lookout for bubble drama and bid-stealers during conference tournaments

Every conference's regular season is in the books, meaning that conference tournaments are officially in full swing. Some have already concluded, others are right in the middle, and the rest get underway this week, but whatever the case, the madness is officially on.

After Monday night’s action, a total of seven teams have won their conference tournament and secured an auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament, those being SIU Edwardsville (OVC), High Point (Big South), Drake (MVC), Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun), Omaha (Summit), Troy (Sun Belt) and Wofford (SoCon).

While these teams know they’re safe when Selection Sunday rolls around in just five days, several teams on the bubble can’t say the same. 

While Arkansas, Indiana, Oklahoma and Xavier all won over the weekend, boosting their at-large chances, every other team below them on the bubble is entering dangerous territory. With bid stealers expected in the next week, don’t be surprised if Ohio State, plus every team I have currently out of the field, is nowhere close when the bracket is released.

Anything is possible though, making this week's action extremely critical to the bubble, but it’s also important at the top of the bracket. Auburn has now lost two in a row after falling at home to Alabama, leaving the door open to another team snagging the No. 1 overall seed.

Duke, Houston and Florida have cases for it, but if Auburn bows out early, don’t be too surprised if it’s another team in the top left corner when the bracket gets released. 

With the win over Auburn, the Crimson Tide are firmly on the two line and are unlikely to move, as is Tennessee and Michigan State, with the Spartans especially impressing of late. St. John’s is my last No. 2 seed, as while they don't have the metrics similar to their peers, the Johnnies pass the eye test and then some. 

With so many elite teams at the top, coupled with a bubble race that may come down to the wire, this year’s champ week could be the best we’ve had in years. On top of all that, we’ll have a bracket in less than a week!

The Bracket
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Graphic by Colin McMahon.
First Four (Dayton, OH)
West Region: 11 San Diego State vs. 11 Xavier
East Region: 12 Ohio State vs. 12 Oklahoma
South Region: 16 American vs. 16 Quinnipiac
Midwest Region: 16 Southern vs. 16 SIU Edwardsville
Bubble Watch
Last four byes: West Virginia, Baylor, Arkansas, Indiana 
Last four in: San Diego State, Oklahoma, Xavier, Ohio State
First four out: Boise State, North Carolina, Colorado State, UC Irvine
Next four out: Texas, Wake Forest, Dayton, Cincinnati
Multi-Bid Conferences
SEC: 13
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 8
Big East: 5
ACC: 3
Mountain West: 3
West Coast: 2

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