As the news broke on Feb. 7 that Indiana head coach Mike Woodson will step down as Indiana's head coach at the end of the season, the Hoosiers sat at a 14-9 record, while riding a four-game losing streak. Just a day later it would be five as Indiana fell to Michigan 70-67.
Then 14-10 and 5-8 in Big Ten play, the murmurs from outside the program and the media saw this season as virtually over, and were now patiently waiting for who would take over as head coach for the 2025-26 basketball season.
Less than a month later, Indiana has won four of five, two of which against top-15 opponents, and likely controls its destiny for a trip to March Madness. As the Hoosiers convincingly beat Washington 78-62 on March 1, the win streak is now up to three.
Indiana’s NCAA Tournament outlook
In the most recent NET Rankings, the tool most used for Selection Sunday, Indiana sits at 55 which is right on the bubble of in or out.
For the remaining two games, the Hoosiers will have chances to boost their resume as their game at Oregon on Tuesday will qualify for a Quad-1 game. Oregon currently is 31 in the NET, and any team between 1-75 qualifies for Quad-1 when played on the road.
Now the season finale against Ohio State is currently a Quad-2 game because the Buckeyes are 36 in the NET and that is being played at Assembly Hall. Home Quad-1 games are only against 1-30 in the rankings. Barring Ohio State beating Nebraska, and some major shakeup in the low 30s, it is likely to stay a Quad-2 game.
According to TeamRankings, Indiana has a 94.8% chance of making the NCAA Tournament with a 10-seed coming at the highest likelihood (22.3%). If the Hoosiers drop their final two games, the percentage drops to 75%, if they split 95.9%, and if they win both a staggering 99.3% probability of making the dance.
As simple as it sounds, if they win, they are probably in. Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, which was updated on Feb. 28, has Indiana as the second of the Last Four In. Keep in mind this was made before the win at Washington. Before Indiana’s wins over Penn State and Washington, Hoosier Network bracketology expert Colin McMahon had Indiana in the field as well
Indiana’s Big Ten Tournament outlook
The Big Ten Tournament only gives Indiana more opportunities for wins, especially against higher ranked opponents. According to college basketball seeding predictor mred, the most likely scenario for Indiana is playing in the 8-9 seed game, with the most likely matchups being against Oregon or Illinois.
In a season that was washing up on shore, Indiana has found a spark and is playing together. Iu is one of four teams in the conference with a three-or-more-game win streak at the moment as getting hot in March only helps. All that remains are the final two regular season games before the madness ensues.
