Frankly, there is no better active basketball player than Nikola Jokić. The only person who can (maybe) give Jokić a run for his money is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. It makes sense why these two are the heavy favorites to take home the MVP award.
These two meet Sunday for the third time this season and for the first time in more than four months. It pits two championship-caliber teams against each other, but all eyes should be on Jokić and Gilgeous-Alexander. If this were a fair MVP race then the result of Sunday’s game, along with Monday’s rematch, would decide who should take home the award.
Unfortunately, the race seemingly has already been decided—Shai Gilgeous Alexander is expected to win the award. Words fail to describe just how reprehensible this outcome would be. Any scenario where Nikola Jokić does not walk away with the MVP award is a disaster.
By no means is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander undeserving of the award, in fact I believe that he is having a MVP-caliber season. In almost any other year the Thunder guard would be more than worthy.
He's the driving force behind one of the NBA’s best teams. According to TeamRankings OKC is on pace for 67 wins and has a nearly 50% chance of winning the whole thing. Only 13 teams have ever won 67 or more games in a season and it’s realistic to believe that the Thunder can surpass this projection.
Gilgeous-Alexander also leads the league in scoring and ranks first in defensive win shares. Gilgeous-Alexander is the premier two-way player in the league, the rare guard that gives it his all on both ends of the court at a high level.
The issue is that Jokić may be having the greatest season of all time. If Jokić doesn’t win the MVP (which is seeming more and more likely) it will be solely due to voter fatigue. Take a seat while I bombard you with a mind-numbing amount of absurd statistics.
Let's start at the most basic of stats: points, rebounds and assists. Jokić averages 28.9 points, 12.7 rebounds and 10.4 assists. If Jokić continues this pace he will be the first center ever to average a triple double. If you zoom out a little bit and ask, “What player had the most combined points, rebounds, and assists per game in a season?” The answer is Wilt Chamberlain (obviously), but in the 21st century the leaders are 2023-2024 Luka Dončić (52.9), 2016-2017 Russell Westbrook (52.62), and Jokić (52) this season.
Jokić barely lags behind Dončić and Westbrook but laps them in terms of efficiency. Dončić was 48.7% from the field and 38.2% from beyond the arc, Westbrook shot 42.5% overall (in retrospect a truly terrible percentage) and 34.3% from 3. Jokić’s field goal percentage is hovering at 57.8% and he is converting on an absurd 44.3% of his 3. The craziest part is Jokić is taking the most 3s of his career.
From an advanced stats perspective, Jokić levitates over everyone. He leads the league in player impact estimate, offensive rating, PER, offensive win shares, win shares, box plus/minus (along with offensive and defensive box plus/minus) and value over replacement player.
There are stats out that tell you that Jokić this season is the single most valuable basketball player ever. Jokić’s offensive and overall box plus/minus are both the highest in NBA history and his PER is a very close second. What Jokić is doing is simply historic.
Again, I don’t mean to take anything away from Gilgeous-Alexander, but his MVP case is rendered moot when compared to Jokić’s. What is Gilgeous-Alexander’s main argument? Those achievements I listed at the beginning are compelling, sure, but more compelling than anything Jokić is currently doing?
The award says “Most Valuable Player” which leaves a lot up to interpretation. However, I’ve always read it as some mixture between the player who is most valuable to their team’s success and the player who puts up the best numbers. The idea is to give the award to the best player (in terms of statistical excellence) that hails from a title contender.
Sometimes one outweighs the other, like when Westbrook won for the aforementioned 2016-2017 season. Despite the fact that the Thunder were far from being one of the best teams in the league, Westbrook took home the award because of his gaudy statistical profile and one other incredibly important, yet stupid aspect of the NBA MVP award: a strong narrative.
When a player has a narrative propelling their MVP campaign they can become bulletproof. Westbrook won his MVP the year after Kevin Durant left OKC for the Golden State Warriors, a universally panned and loathed decision. When Westbrook put up the numbers that he did after Durant abandoned him, he was virtually guaranteed to win.
This year, Gilgeous-Alexander has the narrative behind him. He’s a young star who’s powering a potential Finals winner. Jokić is already a three-time winner and voter fatigue is a real thing. Even so, voters should boil the MVP debate down to its essential parts. Only consider the value of the player to their team’s success and the statistical accomplishments, not any outside noise.
Here’s an easy test: if you remove Jokić from the Nuggets and Gilgeous-Alexander from the Thunder, which team is worse? The Nuggets, by a wide margin. The Thunder have copious amounts of depth, while the Nuggets give Dario Saric and DeAndre Jordan double-digit minutes.
Gilgeous-Alexander is the beneficiary of the talent that surrounds him. While he is a great creator, having a plethora of capable teammates alleviates some of the burden. But for Jokić, he is the singular force that makes the Nuggets go, and he’s really good at it.
Modern-day NBA offenses predicate themselves on spacing the floor to high-quality shots, and that often means shooting lots of 3-pointers. The Nuggets defy all convention. They rank last in 3-pointers attempted yet they rank first in offensive shot quality. How? Jokić.
He has the ability to manufacture incredible opportunities for his teammates, turning them into better players. Westbrook is the newest student to enroll in Nikola Jokić’s School of Basketball Rehabilitation and Elevation as he is having one of the more efficient seasons of his career. Other notable alumni include Aaron Gordon, Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Jokić is a transformative player — he makes good teams great. Gilgeous-Alexander just hasn’t shown the ability to match Jokić in this respect. To rob Jokić of another MVP award would hurt the legacy of a future great chasing immortality.
If Jokić were to win, it would be his fourth MVP in five years, meaning that he would join an elite list. Only Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Michael Jordan, LeBron James and Chamberlain have won four or more MVP awards. Additionally, Jokić would accompany Russell and James as the only ones to do so in a five-year stretch (although Abdul-Jabbar won five in seven years).
Gilgeous-Alexander is growing as a player and has yet to even reach his peak. His time for the MVP will come. Right now, it’s Jokić’s time and it would be unfair and misguided to give the MVP to anyone else.
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