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02/19/2025
Florida coach Todd Golden (middle) celebrates in front of his bench during the Texas at Florida NCAA basketball game at the O’Connell Center in Gainesville on Jan.18, 2025. (Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune Content Agency)
Florida coach Todd Golden (middle) celebrates in front of his bench during the Texas at Florida NCAA basketball game at the O’Connell Center in Gainesville on Jan.18, 2025. (Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune Content Agency)

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Bracketology: Colin McMahon’s bracket projection (Feb. 19)

We've got a new top seed as there are shakeups at the top

More eventful hoops means another edition of my bracket projection, this time with even more changes than last week.

We saw the selection committee’s top 16 seeds revealed, shedding some light on their thinking process, while also giving us a projected bracket for the top four seed lines. While it’s a little out of date now because that was four days ago, it still gave some clarity that I used to tweak my projections.

We’ve got a new one seed: Florida. The Gators move up to the one line after another successful week and a loss from Tennessee, who drops to the top two seed.

The Vols lost to Kentucky, who sits on the three line, though the Wildcats took a loss at Texas on Saturday, pushing the Longhorns above the last four in, though other SEC teams are having a rough go of it on the bubble.

All of Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Georgia have struggled mightily in recent weeks, with the past seven days resulting in at least one loss for all of them. The Commodores and Sooners currently sit in the last four in, while the Razorbacks and Bulldogs are on the outside looking in.

Purdue’s now three straight losses have pushed them all the way down to a four seed, while Wisconsin and Michigan’s recent surges have brought them up to a two and a three seed respectively.

The Big Ten sits at 10 teams in the field, good for second of all conferences after the SEC, who would break the record if the 12 bids I’ve given them hold until Selection Sunday.

Speaking of multi-bid conferences, the Big West has two bids now, as so many bubble teams have taken losses that I’ve got UC Irvine as my last team in.

While that may seem wild, with just 15 days until we get an official bracket, expect a whole lot more madness before the tournament starts.

The Bracket
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Graphic by Colin McMahon.
First Four (Dayton, OH)
Midwest Region: 11 Oklahoma vs. 11 UC Irvine
East Region: 11 Vanderbilt vs. 11 Wake Forest
South Region: 16 American vs. 16 Omaha
East Region: 16 Southern vs. 16 Southeast Missouri State
Bubble Watch
Last four byes: BYU, Ohio State, San Diego State, Texas
Last four in: Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, UC Irvine
First four out: Arkansas, Georgia, Cincinnati, SMU
Next four out: VCU, Indiana, North Carolina, Xavier
Multi-Bid Conferences
SEC: 12
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 8
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
Mountain West: 3
West Coast: 2
Big West: 2

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