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02/11/2025
Clemson's Viktor Lakhin (0) celebrates in the second half against Duke at Littlejohn Coliseum on Saturday, Feb. 8, 2025, in Clemson, South Carolina. (Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images/TNS)
Clemson's Viktor Lakhin (0) celebrates in the second half against Duke at Littlejohn Coliseum on Saturday, Feb. 8, 2025, in Clemson, South Carolina. (Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images/TNS)

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Bracketology: Colin McMahon’s bracket projection (Feb. 11)

Two losses at the top of the rankings have major impacts on the latest bracket projection

With both the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country losing on Saturday, we saw yet another wild weekend of basketball, resulting in more shifts to my projected bracket.

While the at-large teams stayed exactly the same – no new teams falling out or getting into the field as an at-large – there are still plenty of changes after several important results over the past few days of hoops.

As mentioned, No. 1 Auburn took its first loss since December, falling to No. 6 Florida at home. As a result, Florida is up to the top two-seed, though Auburn kept its spot as the No. 1 overall seed.

That’s because the previous No. 2 overall seed, Duke, lost on the road to Clemson. The Tigers moved up to the seven line, while Duke fell to the No. 3 overall seed, Alabama taking its place as the one seed in the Midwest Region.

No other top-10 team lost over the weekend, but some teams further down made some serious noise. No. 20 Arizona kept surging, as it beat No. 13 Texas Tech at home, moving the Wildcats to the three line. The Red Raiders are also a three seed after No. 16 Kansas took a loss to its in-state rival Kansas State, who is on fire but hasn’t quite yet reached the bubble.

UC San Diego took care of UC Irvine on the road, resulting in a switch of who I gave the Big West auto-bid too, though the Anteaters are sitting on the bubble in my “next four out” category.

With all this, plus more, last weekend turned out to be a major few days in terms of changes to the bracket. Selection Sunday is just 33 days away, so expect many more changes from now until then.

The Bracket
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Graphic by Colin McMahon.
First Four (Dayton, OH)
Midwest Region: 11 Texas vs. 11 San Diego State
West Region: 11 Georgia vs. 11 SMU
South Region: 16 American vs. 16 Omaha
East Region: 16 Southern vs. 16 Merrimack
Bubble Watch
Last four byes: Nebraska, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Ohio State
Last four in: Texas, San Diego State, Georgia, SMU
First four out: Arkansas, BYU, North Carolina, VCU
Next four out: UCF, UC Irvine, Cincinnati, Xavier
Multi-Bid Conferences
SEC: 13
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 5
Big East: 4
Mountain West: 3
West Coast: 2

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