Being an Indiana football fan is not easy work. There is a level of acceptance that you need to have to cheer for the losingest college football team of all time. Being an Indiana fan is a lot like being Sisyphus. Indiana fans push that boulder up the hill but every time we seem to reach the top it rolls back down. This repeats for eternity. The irony is that Sisyphus was punished for his tyrannical nature, but Indiana fans are mere innocents. What sort of godly powers have the Hoosier faithful angered to deserve this?
This trend seemed as if it was being bucked as Curt Cignetti, Kurtis Rourke, and a whole cast of misfits and outcasts led the team to a 10-0 record, a fifth overall ranking in the College Football Playoff poll, and a date with destiny versus the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The boulder had been successfully rolled to the top of the hill. After throttling Michigan State and eking past Michigan, it seemed as if this destitute program had separated themselves from Sisyphus and his myth.
Yet, by 3:30 p.m. ET, that boulder had come crashing down. The Hoosiers put forth an embarrassing effort in its 38-15 loss Columbus. The game started out promising with a Buckeye 3-and-out that led to a Hoosier touchdown. But, as the myth goes, once the boulder reaches the top, it rolls back to the bottom. Indiana did the same as they reverted to a style of football that was reminiscent of the Indiana teams of years past.
You could point the finger at a litany of culprits, but, frankly, Indiana is just not as talented as Ohio State. Prior to this game I would have made the argument that the gap could be made up with superior coaching, but Indiana looked undisciplined, sloppy, and rattled. The tackling was non-existent, blocking was porous, and special teams mistakes resulted in 14 Ohio State points. All of this was surprising considering how sound the Hoosiers have been thus far in the season.
I could list off any number of embarrassing offensive stats, but that doesn’t do anyone any good. Indiana was outclassed in every way against a superior Buckeye team. There was a stark difference between the two units, which puts Indiana’s CFP case in question.
Indiana will likely finish the season at 11-1, barring a collapse against a woeful Purdue team. As has been well documented, Indiana’s strength of schedule is firmly behind many of its CFP competitors, so this game against Ohio State carried extra weight. If Indiana could prove its legitimacy by at least hanging tough against the Buckeyes it would all but guarantee the Hoosiers a CFP spot, maybe even the chance to host a game. This is essentially the same model that the committee has followed with Penn State, who lost a close game to the Buckeyes and were ranked fourth in the most recent CFP poll.
Instead, Indiana lost 38-15, which nullifies that course of action. Losing big to quality teams is not out of the norm this season. Georgia was smacked around at Ole Miss and Texas was throttled at home by Georgia. The difference is that Georgia has wins over Tennessee and Texas, and while Texas may not have a signature ranked win, their bevy of “solid” wins far outpace someone like Indiana.
If you break it down, Texas’s best wins are probably Michigan and Vanderbilt. While I don’t think any of these teams are exactly world-beaters, I as an Indiana defender can’t say that Indiana’s wins are any better. Michigan, Nebraska, Washington. That’s who Indiana’s best wins are. The shared opponent, Michigan, Texas beat by 14 more points, on the road no less.
Yet, there is no planet where Indiana should not be one of the 12 teams included in the Playoff. Indiana will finish 8-1 in the second-best conference in college football. Sure, their conference schedule didn’t end up being the toughest but going out and winning the games you’re supposed to is no easy task. Just ask any number of SEC teams.
Alabama dropped games to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma (who is probably going to finish with only two conference wins), Ole Miss lost to Kentucky (who finished with one conference win), and Tennessee was bested by Arkansas. Is it fair to give these teams a pass because of their pedigree of talent or ranked wins? No.
Oh, and Indiana’s supposedly “awful” strength of schedule, well, following the game versus Ohio State, Indiana’s strength of schedule now stands at 51. That ranking is higher than the following teams’: Oregon, Miami, SMU, Notre Dame, Boise State and Arizona State. It only slightly lags behind the likes of Texas and BYU who slot in at 36 and 39 respectively.
The numbers favor Indiana. They are seventh in strength of record and game control, 11 in FPI, and fourth in average in-game win probability. Indiana doesn’t just win, they win well. Their game film looks like a team that is among the 12 best in the country.
The situation reminds me of what Oregon experienced last season. The Ducks lost two games, both coming to the hands of Washington, by a combined six points. Much like Indiana, Oregon continually appeared to play like one of the best teams in the country. Their reward for this stellar season was a Fiesta Bowl appearance where they promptly thumped Liberty.
The 12-team Playoff was created for the Oregons and Indianas of the world. These are really good teams. Are they great? Time will tell, but it’s wrong to rob them of an opportunity to prove their worth by omitting them in favor of a team with a hard ceiling. I know that Tennessee is an excellent football team but I also know that they have a freshman quarterback, a loss to Arkansas, and advanced metrics that are far from flattering. If the CFP committee fails to include Indiana in their final rankings, I’m not sure how it can be reasonably justified.
After the Ohio State loss Cignetti was asked if he believes Indiana should be a playoff team. His answer:
“Is that a serious question? I’m not even going to answer that. The answer is so obvious.”
Frankly, I’m inclined to agree with him.
