Before fans can even take a breath, the first set of group stage matches in the 2024 European Championship have concluded. Top nations have shown why they’re the favorites, underdogs have emerged and golazos have been scored. If this trajectory holds, it will be one of the best tournaments in recent memory.
But I’m getting ahead of myself. For now, here are six takeaways after the first third of the group stage has been completed:
Germany showed it’s capable of winning the tournament
No matter how you look at it, a 5-1 victory is a fantastic result. But for Germany, it’s even better. After winning the 2014 World Cup, Germany has failed to reach the knockout stage of the past two World Cups, finishing fourth and third in 2018 and 2022, respectively. Their success in the Euros hasn’t been much better either, as they reached the semi-final in 2016 but lost in the round of 16 in the 2020 edition.
Germany needed a fast start in this tournament to truly solidify themselves as favorites, and their opening game of the tournament against Scotland showed just that. Five different goal scorers, contributions from the bench and a dominating display across the entire field showcased how Germany truly are one of the best in the Euros.
In the attack, 21-year-olds Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz impacted the game almost immediately, with a goal from each of them in the first 20 minutes. Striker Kai Havertz got on the scoresheet in the first half as well, albeit from a penalty. In the second half, a marvelous finish from substitute striker Niclas Füllkrug showcased how Germany have depth in their forward line they haven’t had for some time.
Midfielder Toni Kroos, who will retire from professional football following the tournament, put on a clinic for Germany. He completed 101 passes out of 102 and dictated the pace of play for the entirety of the 80 minutes he was on the field. In fact, it was Kroos’ diagonal long ball to Joshua Kimmich that opened the play for the right back, who ultimately found Wirtz at the top of the box for the opening goal.
It may be too soon to say for certain whether Germany’s defense is one of the best in the tournament — and it’s also unclear how good a team Scotland is — but holding your opponent to zero expected goals is not an easy task. The only slip-up from the German defense was a fluke own goal off the head of center back Antonio Rüdiger, and if this level of excellence can continue for Germany, it will be tough to stop in the rest of the group stage and beyond.
Croatia’s loss to Spain looked bad on paper but it’s not time to overreact
Losing 3-0 is never a good look for a team, especially a team as successful as Croatia has been in years past. The squad finished second and third in the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, respectively. However, hitting the panic button already is not a necessary or reasonable reaction to this defeat.
Croatia’s overall performance was less than stellar, but the stats reveal it was a much closer match than the scoreline suggests. According to FotMob, Croatia had more possession, more shots and beat Spain on xG, 2.38 to 2.01.
The eye test also backs this assessment of the match. Spain finished off their three quality chances of the first half with goals from striker Alvaro Morata, midfielder Fabián Ruiz and defender Daniel Carvajal. Croatia had their own set of opportunities in the first 45 minutes, with a close shot from winger Lovro Majer hitting the side netting and defender Joško Gvardiol striking a ball across goal that just missed the outstretched leg of striker Ante Budimir.
After Spain defensive midfielder Rodri brought down Croatia striker Bruno Petkovic in the box for a penalty, Croatia finally had a chance to get on the scoresheet in the second half. For a moment, it seemed they had when Petkovic was able to tap in a cross after his penalty was initially saved, but the video assistant referee deemed midfielder Ivan Perisic had entered the box before the ball was kicked. Since he was the first player to touch the ball after the save, it wiped off the goal Croatia so desperately craved.
Ultimately, Croatia will need to solidify their back line and be more clinical in front of the net, but don’t be surprised if the next two games are in their favor after a disastrous first one.
England have to figure out their lineup situation quick
On paper, England is a top three team in the entire tournament. After its performance against Serbia, I’m not sure I have any confidence they will win the Euros.
For most of the game, the Three Lions looked lifeless. Midfielder Phil Foden, who just won Premier League Player of the Season a month ago, was non-existent. Striker Harry Kane has scored the most goals in the history of the England international team, but Serbia neutralized him for all but one chance. The lone bright spot was midfielder Jude Bellingham, who’s goal gave England the victory, and his overall quality play kept Serbia from constantly attacking the English backline.
A lot of criticism is thrown onto manager Gareth Southgate, and it isn’t unreasonable to say England should be playing better with the talent it has. Including Premier League Young Player of the Season Cole Palmer into the squad may be the next step for Southgate, as the 20-year-old didn’t manage to make an appearance. Given how poor Foden looked in a wide position instead of his usual roaming, central role at Manchester City, I wouldn’t be surprised if Palmer gets the start in the next match against Denmark.
Its 1-0 victory over Serbia almost guarantees England’s passage into the next round, barring one of the most shock group stage exits in European Championship history. Any success beyond the group stage is attainable for this England squad, but their issues across the field will need to be sorted out quickly if it is to happen.
If France’s result against Austria brings doubts, it shouldn’t
For most big teams, defeating a nation ranked 25th in the FIFA World Rankings by only one goal — which happened to be an own goal — is a worrying sign. For France, this is just the manner in which it wins. France won’t play the most beautiful, expansive form of soccer one might expect from a team of their quality, but they haven’t for a long time.
The semi-finals of the 2022 World Cup saw France defeat Morocco 2-0. A goal in the fifth minute from defender Theo Hernandez meant France could sit back, allowing Morocco to finish with 62% possession and 13 total shots. Even still, France’s defense held strong until forward Randal Kolo Muani iced the game with a goal in the 79th minute.
The semi-finals of the 2018 World Cup was nearly identical. Belgium held 64% possession and managed nine shots, three on target. Even though France had 19 attempts and five on target, a glancing header from defender Samuel Umtiti was all it took to advance to the World Cup final. Further emphasizing the point, the Euro 2016 semi-final saw Germany maintain 68% possession but still lose 2-0 thanks to a Griezmann brace.
So, don’t worry about France. Its performance is just a sign of things to come for a team that has shown time and again this is how they play — and how they win.
Three dark horses have emerged amongst the rest of the pack
Entering an international tournament grants pundits and fans alike the opportunity to make any team of their choosing a dark horse. After every team’s first set of matches, Slovakia, Romania and Turkey have solidified their candidacy as this tournament’s dark horse.
Slovakia’s historic 1-0 victory over Belgium placed them firmly in the driver’s seat to move on from the group, having defeated the most talented squad in Group E. Belgium may not be where it once was in terms of talent, but it still is one of the top teams in Europe, making Slovakia’s victory that much more special.
Along with Slovakia at the top of Group E is Romania, the next member of the dark horses list. While its 3-0 victory over Ukraine may not be as impressive as Slovakia’s over Belgium, the definitive nature of the win puts it only a step behind. Romania only had 28% possession, but had five shots on target to Ukraine’s three and according to FotMob, an xG of 1.20 to Ukraine’s .75. On paper, Ukraine appears to be the better team, but Romania showed that individual players can only carry a team so far.
Rounding out the list is Turkey in Group F. Its victory over Georgia isn’t all too impressive considering it is the first international tournament Georgia has ever competed in. However, Turkey generated 22 shots, eight on target, and had five big chances. Five players earned 8.3 match ratings according to FotMob, not including midfield captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu who was awarded the Serie A Best Midfielder award for the 2023-24 season. A better performance from the 30-year-old along with the continued success of his fellow countrymen will likely lead Turkey into the next round and farther beyond.
Every team is still capable of moving on
With most other tournaments, it’s paramount to have a quick start in the group stage so a team doesn’t have to make up points in pursuit of the top two spots. In the Euros, the inclusion of qualification for the top four third-place teams means a quick start is helpful but not a necessity.
The 2016 Euros was the first to feature 24 teams and the new third-place qualification. In that tournament, two teams finished with four points and the other two had three. In the 2020 Euros, three teams had four points and the last one had three.
With that being said, a win is all any team needs to possibly earn qualification. And if the previous teams have shown anything, it’s that a win and a draw is effectively all a nation needs to likely confirm qualification. So even Scotland, who suffered the 5-1 battering to Germany on the first matchday, still has a chance to move on to the knockout stage.
