The group stages of Euro 2024 will long be remembered for their excitement, beautiful goals and late-game drama. One can only hope this will continue into the knockout stages, as 16 teams prepare to win four games that will immortalize their names in the history book.
Among those 16 teams are nations such as England or Switzerland, eager to win a first European Championship. Others including Spain and Germany have seen much success in past tournaments, as both countries are attempting to win a record-breaking fourth European Championship. Either way, the winner will be creating history that will be remembered by the people of its nation forever.
With only 15 matches left in Euro 2024, here are my predictions for the knockout round:
Round of 16
Italy vs. Switzerland
Italy and Switzerland both saw last-minute equalizers that drastically changed their futures in Euro 2024. Italian winger Mattia Zaccagni scored a goal in the 98th minute, crushing the hearts of the Croatian players and fans as the 1-1 draw saw Italy finish second in the group and send Croatia out of the tournament. If the Azzurri had not equalized, they would have failed to reach the Euro knockout stages for the first time since 2004.
Conversely, Switzerland held a 1-0 lead over Germany for the majority of the match, but a header from German striker Niclas Füllkrug snatched first place in Group A. Other than the late goal, Switzerland showed its ability to stand firm against one of the giants in European soccer.
On paper, Italy appear to be the better side, but given their performances against the likes of Spain, Croatia and even Albania, I don’t like their chances of moving on. Switzerland dominated Hungary and only managed a point against a poor Scotland side, but its impressive performance against Germany, one of my favorites to win the Euros, gives me the most confidence that the Swiss will upset Italy.
England vs. Slovakia
England have not impressed at all to begin the tournament, with only two goals to show for their star power in attack. Despite a first-place finish in Group C, a draw against Slovenia in its final group stage match brings little confidence for the Three Lions heading into the knockout stages.
Slovakia began the Euros with a shocking 1-0 victory over Belgium, but it appeared the squad came crashing back to reality after a 2-1 defeat to Ukraine. A 1-1 draw to Romania was all the team needed to move on in third place, but Slovakia’s expectations are not as high as they were after the first match.
Even though England have shown little to believe they will make any sort of run in the tournament, the talent in the squad will likely find a way to pull out a victory against an inferior Slovakian side. I don’t expect the game to be a blowout, but England will secure a tight victory to move on.
Romania vs. Netherlands
If I had been told before the tournament started that Romania and Netherlands would be facing each other in the round of 16, I would have imagined Netherlands had finished in a spot above Romania. And yet, here we are. Romania had a brilliant start to its tournament with a 3-0 victory over Ukraine, but a 2-0 defeat to Belgium and a 1-1 draw to Slovakia tempered expectations. It still managed to finish top of the group, but questions still surround the squad.
A third-place finish is not the end of the world, but for the Netherlands, it feels rather disappointing. Manager Ronald Koeman’s tactics didn’t seem to work in the 3-2 defeat to Austria, evidenced by the fact he subbed on attacking midfielder Xavi Simons for central midfielder Joey Veerman only 33 minutes into the game. Beyond its one defeat, the Netherlands were never dominant but managed to win 2-1 over Poland following a late winner from strike Wout Weghorst and take a 0-0 draw against France.
Both of these squads enter the knockout stages with four points, so it will be tough to see a clear winner. Given the Netherlands have talent in every position which Romania cannot match, I predict the Dutch will move on with a victory.
Austria vs. Türkiye
Arguably the biggest shock of the Euros so far has been Austria’s first-place finish above France and the Netherlands in Group D. Manager Ralf Rangnick’s pressing style of soccer can be attributed to much of the success Austria has earned, but a talented squad of youth and experienced veterans has brought the squad to a great position to begin the round of 16.
Türkiye finished second with two victories in Group F, the most impressive being its 3-1 triumph over now-qualified Georgia. A defeat to Portugal that featured a dreadful performance may raise a few eyebrows, but Türkiye silenced the questions with a 2-1 win over Czechia.
The battle of the dark horses will likely not disappoint, granting the neutral viewer a spectacle to appreciate. It will be hard to choose who will come out on top, but given Rangnick’s tactics, I believe Austria will come out on top over Türkiye.
Germany vs. Denmark
After the 5-1 thumping over Scotland in the first match of the tournament, it was obvious Germany would be a dominant squad. This continued immediately into the next match with a 2-0 victory over Hungary, but a 1-1 draw to Switzerland with a Niklas Füllkrug equalizer in the 92nd minute showed Germany was also capable of recovering from deficits.
Denmark showed very little in its group, with three draws in three matches. However, it has the talent and experience to compete with the top nations, especially considering only three years ago it was in the semi-final of the Euros.
Given Germany’s great start to the tournament coupled with Denmark’s lackluster performances, I see it harder for Germany to lose the game than it is for them to win it. Therefore, Germany will advance to the quarter-finals.
Spain vs. Georgia
Spain enters the knockout stages with a tremendous amount of confidence, as it was the only team in the tournament to win all three matches. And while a 1-0 victory over Albania may not be great, achieving it with the entire bench starting shows the depth manager Luis de la Fuente is working with.
After achieving a 2-0 victory over Portugal in the biggest upset in European Championship history, Georgia has survived far longer than anyone could have predicted, except maybe Georgian supporters. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia shone in the final match despite doing very little in the first two, and goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili continued to impress as one of the top young keepers in this tournament.
Had Georgia faced anyone other than the best team in the tournament, I would have considered its chances of moving on. However, Spain is simply too talented and deep for Georgia, which is why La Roja will move on with relative ease.
France vs. Belgium
The FIFA Men’s World Rankings pits this matchup as No. 2 versus No. 3, but based on recent form, I’m not so sure. France may still be the favorites after a lackluster group stages in which it finished second, but the squad will need to be a lot more clinical if Les Blues are to have any chance of winning its second Euros.
Belgium has been in the top five of the rankings for the last decade, but it's clear this reign is nearing a conclusion. In a pretty weak group, Belgium only earned four points out of a possible nine, so a matchup against France is the worst possible scenario for a squad hoping to gain some confidence as it makes a deep run in the tournament.
This match should be the best in the round of 16 based on the pedigree of the squads, but in reality, it will likely be a cage match with very few chances on either side. I expect France to be the more clinical side, and if the semi-finals of the 2018 World Cup are anything to go off of, a 1-0 victory for Les Blues is the most likely outcome. No matter the scoreline, however, France will move on.
Portugal vs. Slovenia
The first two matches of Portugal’s tournament featured a comeback in the dying moments and a dominating performance. A shock defeat to Georgia in the final match may start to bring question marks to the team, but it must be acknowledged that manager Roberto Martinez swapped eight players from his starting 11 in the previous match. It wasn’t an ideal result for Portugal, but it certainly won’t impact its chances of competing for the top prize.
Three matches and three draws was all it took for Slovenia to move on, and if it hadn’t conceded a last-minute equalizer to Serbia, it may have been ahead of England in Group C. However, this wasn’t the case, and Slovenia was dealt one of the hardest opponents to open the knockout stages.
It’s very hard to imagine a scenario in which Slovenia comes out on top, unless it scores a late winner or forces the game to penalties. Even still, I see Portugal taking the match no matter what.
Quarter-Finals
England vs. Switzerland
Considering England’s expectations entering Euro 2024, it is remarkable that anyone can predict a quarter-final exit as realistic for the squad, especially against a squad such as Switzerland. But that is exactly what I am predicting. England’s talent will only be able to bring it so far, and Switzerland’s dark horse run will continue into the semi-finals with a close victory.
Netherlands vs. Austria
With this matchup having already been played, serious questions will arise heading into the game. Austria will be able to answer those questions once again as it beats the Netherlands for the second time in the tournament.
Germany vs. Spain
Two of the favorites after the knockout stage face off in the quarter-finals, with one team going home sad. It’s nearly a toss-up between the two sides, but Spain’s formidable lineup will be hard to beat. I believe a close match will ultimately go in favor of La Roja.
France vs. Portugal
In a rematch of the Euro 2016 final, No. 2 faces off against No. 6 in the FIFA Men’s World Rankings. With that heartbreaking defeat on its mind, I believe France will pull off the tight victory over Portugal.
Semi-Finals
Switzerland vs. Austria
In a battle of the dark horses, we will see one of the most entertaining semi-finals in recent history. With both teams gunning for glory, expect a lot of action in what will ultimately be a close match favoring Austria.
Spain vs. France
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? That will be the question on everyone’s minds as Spain, the force, meets France, the object. In this case, Spain’s flowing attack will best France’s rigid defense in a tight matchup.
Final
Spain vs. Austria
This match will guarantee fireworks. Neither team will play a negative brand of soccer, which means goals, energy and excitement is likely. In one of the best finals of recent memory, Spain will come out on top and win its record-breaking fourth Euros.
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