Amidst a relocation effort and minimal desire from ownership to contend, the emergence of Mason Miller as an elite closer has been a bright spot for the Athletics to start 2024. The 25-year-old reliever has been nothing short of dominant in his ninth-inning role, posting a 0.93 ERA while converting all eight of his save opportunities and holding opposing hitters to a .108 AVG. Miller also ranks in the top percentile in the majors in fastball velocity (100.9 MPH), whiff% (46.9), strikeout % (54.3), and hard hit % (18.5).
Miller’s elite performance, paired with the amount of club control he has (Miller won’t become a free agent after the 2029 season), will carry an astronomical price tag if they decide to move him, and a trade, albeit unlikely, is at the very least worth monitoring.
Despite making the league minimum salary of $740,000 both this season and next, the A’s reportedly haven’t ruled out moving Miller, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported the A’s are getting calls from other clubs about Miller with the price tag “staggering.” Miller’s injury history might scare a few teams, as he lost five months in 2022 following a shoulder strain and most of the 2023 season with a sprain of his ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow, an injury that in many cases can result in Tommy John surgery. Regardless, there is no denying Miller’s dominance on the mound and Oakland’s ask for him is rightfully high.
So what would acquiring Miller cost? One previous trade stands out as a benchmark for what it would cost for an opposing team to acquire Miller. During the 2018 MLB offseason, the Mariners traded second baseman Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz, as well as $20 million in cash for veterans Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak, as well as outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic and pitching prospect Justin Dunn. Even with the Mets taking on a bulk of Cano’s contract, trading for Diaz’s five years of control cost the Mets a pair of Top 100 MLB prospects in Kelenic (No. 56) and Dunn (No. 91). The A’s don’t really have a bad contract to ship out with Miller, so this trade serves as a floor for what Miller could probably fetch in return should the A’s decide to deal him
If the A's decide to trade Miller, the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs could be potential destinations. Both teams are contenders but have struggled with their bullpens. The Orioles, in particular, are unlikely to have Felix Bautista return this year, while Adbert Alzolay has been demoted from the closer’s role in Chicago.
For the Orioles, I think a package for Miller could look something like MLB No. 22 overall prospect OF Heston Kjerstad, 2B Connor Norby (Baltimore’s No. 6 prospect), OF Dylan Beavers (Baltimore’s No. 9 prospect) and either RHP Trace Bright (Baltimore’s No. 16 prospect) or RHP Jackson Baumeister (Baltimore’s No. 18 prospect). Baltimore has the farm system depth beyond the previously mentioned prospects to palate a blockbuster move in acquiring Miller, and he would solidify their closer role that has already seen Craig Kimbrel demoted.
I think a Cubs package of one of OF Owen Caissie (MLB’s No. 36 overall prospect) or 3B Matt Shaw (No. 43 overall), OF Kevin Alcantara (No. 53 overall), and SS Jefferson Rojas (No. 97 overall) would be enough to get the A’s to pull the trigger on moving Miller, but it is worth wondering if the team would be more inclined to look toward other alternatives to address their bullpen need and use some of their prospect depth to acquire an impact bat as the team is ranked 23rd in batting average, hitting just .230
Conclusion
I do not think Miller will get dealt, not because of Oakland’s unwillingness to move him but because of the price he will command. Other relief options could be available, such as the Marlins’ Tanner Scott, Houston’s Ryan Pressly, Toronto’s Jordan Romano and St. Louis’ Ryan Helsley, which would adequately address a team needing bullpen help at a lesser cost.
Nonetheless, Miller has established himself as one of the best relievers in the sport. Given the Athletics’ current stance, which at the very least suggests they are listening to calls from other clubs, Miller will be a name to watch as the deadline approaches.
