After 233 days, basketball is officially back in Bloomington.
The Indiana Hoosiers open up regular season play against Florida Gulf Coast at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday inside Assembly Hall. With Mike Woodson entering his third season at the helm, his Hoosier squad features 10 new faces without Indiana legend Trayce Jackson-Davis.
How will the Hoosiers fare embarking into the post-Jackson-Davis era? Our Hoosier Network men’s basketball beat reporters began answering that question.
Most Valuable Player
Audrey Marr: I don’t think it goes without saying that this season is going to run through Xavier Johnson. As a sixth-year senior, he is the glue that will hold together this very new and young team based on his experience and his prominent leadership role. I think that there will be a lot of key players in this team, but Johnson will be the one to put everything together, most likely be up there in assists, and especially coming off of his injury, it seems that he has something to prove. I think he will exceed expectations this season.
Thomas Montalbano: Named captain for his mentality, Xavier Johnson is entering year six with one goal: to win as many basketball games as possible. X knows the ins and outs of the game, is familiar with many opponents, and has a lot to prove coming off his season-ending injury. X brings confidence with every game, and although he might not lead the team in scoring, he’ll be the most vocal and encouraging figure in the locker room along with Trey Galloway.
Hayden Smith: The offense will exclusively run through Xavier Johnson this season, he will command the helm as a sixth-year guy. After his injury midway through the season last year, Woodson has expressed how much X has grown as a leader which will be essential for a team gaining so many new faces. Johnson will be the anchor for the team whenever times undoubtedly get tough.
Breakout Player of the Year
Marr: From what was seen of him in the exhibitions and how highly he has been mentioned throughout the offseason by Woodson and other players, I have to go with CJ Gunn here. From the two exhibitions, you can see the tremendous growth that happened in the offseason and I believe he will play a crucial role in coming off of the bench and bringing Indiana a spark when it’s needed. Tallying 19 points in these two exhibitions coming off of the bench and bringing a big defensive presence is something that Indiana definitely needs, and something I see Gunn providing consistently. With Gunn and Gabe Cupps at the helm, this Indiana second unit has the potential to be one of the best in the country.
Montalbano: One of the sophomores Woodson has emphasized needs to be a breakout player. CJ Gunn can provide a big spark off the bench not only with the second unit but for the starting unit as well. Gunn had the most impressive performances to me in exhibition play, making plays on both ends of the floor, even if it is not strictly in terms of scoring. Gunn’s confidence has seemingly improved from last year and he will be a crucial piece for the Hoosiers.
Smith: After what I have seen from him in the exhibitions and hearing how confident he is, I’ve got to go with Anthony Walker. The transfer from Miami didn’t see many minutes last season, averaging a career-low. Joining the team he helped defeat in the NCAA Tournament, Walker will be a huge piece to Indiana’s second unit. With the tournament experience that Walker brings to the table coupled with how he produced during the exhibitions, Walker will help dominate on the defensive end for the Hoosiers this season.
Newcomer of the Year
Marr: I think Kel’el Ware is definitely a newcomer to watch out for this season. Tallying a total of 34 points in Indiana’s two exhibition games and a double-double just in his second showing in Assembly Hall is very promising. With the massive question mark surrounding who would be able to fill the role of Jackson-Davis, Ware definitely deserves recognition. It was a slow start for him in the UIndy exhibition, but it seems as though he has gotten more and more comfortable in each half he played in, and especially the second half of the Marian exhibition stood out to me. He completely dominated the court and if he plays like that and gains more confidence as the season progresses, I think he has the potential to make a massive impact on this young Indiana team.
Montalbano: After more media attention than he anticipated before the season began, Mackenzie Mgbako now has an extra chip on his shoulder to silence those who are questioning his game and mentality. He has looked great in preseason and is more than capable of scoring from 3, mid-range, or underneath the basket. Mgbako is a top-15 pick in most NBA mock drafts heading into next year, and he’ll look to make a big impact this year to make that dream a reality.
Smith: You can certainly make the case for Kel’el Ware here, but looking around the team, Mackenzie Mgbako is the most NBA-ready prospect and could easily lead the team in scoring as a freshman. A consensus five-star recruit, and one of the highest in Indiana history according to 247Sports, Mgbako has an arsenal that is unmatched. The ability to score at all three levels is one of the many reasons he is a projected first-round draft pick in 2024. Mgbako has a confidence in him that you don’t see in freshman. With how Woodson helped turn Jalen Hood-Schifino into a star in the Big Ten, the same can be said for Mgabko.
Player to watch out for
Marr: I don’t think I can pick anyone here but Gabe Cupps. On Monday, Woodson said he expects Cupps to play quality minutes, which is unsurprising if you saw the way he played in the exhibition games. He showed that can be heavily utilized on both sides of the ball, collecting six assists as well as two steals just in the exhibition against Marian. I think he will be utilized a lot more this season than people expect, and I don’t think Hoosier fans will be opposed.
Montalbano: Adding 14 reps to his 185-pound bench after a great summer working with Director of Athletic Performance Clif Marshall, Malik Reneau is in store for a big season. He’s one of the sophomores Woodson has been preaching about who needs to take the leap this year, especially as someone in the starting unit. Reneau has looked confident in exhibition play and that should translate well into the season.
Smith: How can you not love Gabe Cupps? He brings everything that Indiana fans love to the table: the ability to shoot the 3-pointer and a scrappy defensive mindset. During the first two exhibitions, Cupps racked up three steals and seven assists. Granted he only attempted one 3-point shot during both contests, give Cupps time and he could become the next coming of Jordan Hulls.
Boldest Prediction
Marr: Indiana’s second unit will prove to be one of the best, if not the best in the country | Indiana’s second unit stood out to me in the preseason. While many great things were evident in the first unit, there were many unexpected sparks seen from those players coming off of the bench, specifically Cupps, Gunn and Anthony Walker to name a few. Woodson has stated how crucial the second unit will be in the team’s play this season, and with what was seen in the exhibitions, I think there will be a lot more off-the-bench action than people would expect. I believe that there is still a lot of experimenting to be done, but once they find the niche that works best for a common ground with their first and second unit, I think the players off the bench will bring a lot of success for Indiana this season.
Montalbano: Indiana will be a better team than last year | The chemistry might take some time to get used to — the elephant in the room is that they lost Jackson-Davis and Hood-Schifino, along with Miller Kopp and Race Thompson, but they have lots of talent here now and once settled and chemistry is on point, I think the ceiling is higher than it was before.
Smith: Indiana holds one of the best defenses in the Big Ten | The length that this Indiana team has is incredible — a seven-footer and two others above 6-foot-8 in the frontcourt will certainly cause problems for opposing offenses. Not to mention the backcourt of Indiana’s starting five sporting Xavier Johnson and Trey Galloway, two players already known for their defensive prowess. Last season, the Hoosiers were ninth in scoring defense in the Big Ten. I highly expect that spot to move up this season to two or three.
Game to watch out for
Marr: Indiana vs. Purdue | Following an Indiana sweep last season, it will be interesting to see how this Indiana team with 10 newcomers will be facing a veteran Purdue team. I’m also very interested in seeing the matchup of Kel’el Ware and Zach Edey. At that point in the season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a completely different Ware on the court, as I think his confidence will continue to grow. Every season, this is the game that everyone is waiting for. This highly acclaimed Purdue team is favored to go far this season, so it will be interesting to see where Indiana is at this point of the season and how it performs against some of the biggest teams in college basketball right now. Obviously, Woodson has experience in coaching these teams, and with returners such as Galloway, Johnson, Reneau, Gunn, Kaleb Banks, etc., this isn’t a game where Indiana is going in blind. Again, there are a lot of unanswered questions, but this will definitely be something to watch out for, and two teams to keep up with throughout the season.
Montalbano: Indiana vs. UConn | Playing against the reigning champs in Madison Square Garden, the world's most famous arena, this is Indiana’s biggest challenge to start the season. Indiana’s confidence and composure will be put to the test, and if the Hoosiers can get this win they will be making a statement to the rest of the country that they are here to compete and win big games. It’s worth mentioning this is one of my favorite places on earth (shoutout Knicks), I am looking forward to this game. Also worth mentioning UConn is technically New York’s team, so this will be a difficult match for the Hoosiers.
Smith: Indiana vs. Kansas | The preseason No. 1 team in the nation is set to arrive in Assembly Hall for the second straight season (North Carolina in 2022). Indiana and Kansas met in Allen Fieldhouse last December with the Jayhawks walking away with a dominant 84-62 victory, the same day Xavier Johnson went down with a season-ending injury. This season, Kansas brings in an Indiana favorite Hunter Dickinson (yes I’m being sarcastic) along with Kevin McCullar Jr. and Dajuan Harris Jr. Questions about student attendance at this game have risen, with the game being the day after winter break begins, but looking at how Kansas students showed up last season, I see no reason why this game cannot be one of the loudest of the season.
Postseason Predictions (Ceiling & floor)
Marr:
Floor: 19-12 | I think even in the case that Indiana doesn’t find a groove right away in the season, it still ends over .500. I think IU’s toughest play will prove to be in the Big Ten. The conference is growing strength-wise and this might be the most successful season of basketball in the Big Ten that we have seen in a very long time. I think in this sense, in the non-conference games, Indiana falls to UConn, Auburn, Kansas and Texas if they ultimately face them at the Empire Classic. Again, this is the floor. I think Indiana will win more of these non-conference games, but this is in the case that Indiana cannot produce in the way that people expect and the Hoosiers cannot find a groove.
Ceiling: 24-7 | I believe that this Indiana team has a lot of potential. This is a very young Indiana team, and there are a lot of questions surrounding the team, which makes it special. Indiana also has someone to play for this season. With ‘RMK’ patches on their jerseys for the duration of the season, Indiana will be playing to honor the legacy of Bob Knight, who had and continues to have a massive impact on the program. In this case, I believe Indiana could go 9-2 or 8-3 in its non-conference slate. It truly depends on how the team works together and from the exhibition games. It looked like the team has started utilizing the “extra pass” a lot more than in previous seasons, which is one of the many things that will be crucial in the season. If Indiana makes the tournament, it would not surprise me if they got far. At that point in the season, things should be clicking on all cylinders and again, they’re playing for Knight, and this is Johnson’s last go-around. This team understands what is at stake and I think there is a great chance that they have a very successful season.
Montalbano:
Floor: 17-14 | There are a lot of question marks heading into this season, one being how well the chemistry will look. With 10 new faces, this roster may take some time to get accustomed to each other's game, and if that transition period takes longer than expected, the Hoosiers could find themselves in trouble early on and throughout the season. The Big Ten has a big pool of talent this year, and this conference will likely be their biggest challenge.
Ceiling: 23-8 | On the other end of the spectrum, the chemistry is clicking right off the bat, and the Hoosiers come out of the gate red hot — putting the college basketball world on notice. Without a doubt, there will be hiccups throughout the season, but with four five-star recruits, Indiana can go deep and hang in there with any team in the country. Woodson is entering year three and is looking to make a statement on behalf of himself, his team, and the state of Indiana.
Smith:
Floor: 18-13 | Things don’t click with Indiana on the offensive end, they go 1-3 in the four big non-conference games (UConn, Texas/Louisville, Auburn, Kansas) and Indiana has a losing record in Big Ten play. This would ultimately mean that Indiana would not go dancing and would instead head to the NIT and Indiana fans would show their displeasure. Moving forward, Indiana basketball would still have a lot to look forward to with Liam McNeeley becoming the savior for basketball in the Hoosier state and Woodson continuing to recruit in the transfer portal.
Ceiling: 22-9 | If everything goes right for this team, Indiana could be a monster defensive team in the nation. Take a look at Woodson’s Atlanta Hawks in 2010: they held one of the best defenses in the NBA sporting a similarly sized frontcourt as Indiana. The Hoosiers can replicate the style of play the Hawks ran and use that to their advantage in the grueling Big Ten. In non-conference play, Indiana goes 3-1 with a loss to UConn in the four games and takes another double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. In this scenario, these Hoosiers would go to the Sweet Sixteen, and Indiana basketball would be back on the map after three consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances, getting better each season.
